nfl line movement betting lines

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He has also impressed in Scotland this season with Motherwell currently third in the Premiership. Healy's stock continues to rise following Linfield's impressive run in Europe this summer when they narrowly missed out on reaching the group stages of the Europa League. Here's our main Belfast Live Facebook page. On Twitter, you can follow our account by clicking here. If you're a lover of photos, then check out our Instagram.

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Nfl line movement betting lines

They set it based on their goals, which can differ game-to-game. This way they can't lose. They can't lose. But, the oddsmakers' goal sometimes is to actually take lopsided action. They sometimes roll the dice, believing the betting public will be on the wrong side and they can score a huge win. There is quite often very lopsided betting. To see this in action, check out this consensus betting tool. So on any given game, the sportsbooks have high exposure. But, spread over hundreds of games per week, their exposure is relatively limited.

The biggest exposure for them, of course, is on the big games in which the betting is so heavy that it dwarfs the betting activity on other events. The most obvious example of this is the Super Bowl. Sportsbooks have massive exposure both positive and negative on this game, given the high number of bets. Another question I often get is, who exactly moves the lines - the sharps or the public? The answer is, it depends. On low-profile games, line movements tend to be more driven by the sharps.

The percentage of money that sharps place on low-profile games is relatively high, so their bets have a bigger movement effect. In this case, you can bet the movement is due to a few very large bets placed by sharps. The public is betting small amounts on Team A while the sharps are betting massive amounts on Team B. Some people employ a betting strategy that looks for this kind of game, and they go with the side the sharps are on, assuming they know what they are doing.

In higher profile games, specifically the Super Bowl, the roles reverse. On the Super Bowl, the public money from Joe Square dwarfs that of sharps. So, line movements on the Super Bowl tend to be more driven by the general betting public.

In football in particular, there are key numbers as it relates to the spread. Due to the scoring structure of football, an inordinate number of football games end with a team winning by 3, 7, 9 and 10 points. This is important as it relates to line movement.

Oddsmakers try not to move a line too much, and they try extremely hard to avoid moving a line over a key number. Because it exposes them to massive losses by bettors "middling" them. This opportunity gives the bettor a chance to win two bets, with little risk. The sportsbooks don't like this :. Here's an example:. Team A is favored by 2. Bettors think Team A at Seeing the wildly uneven action, the oddsmakers realize they set the line wrong and to encourage more bets on Team B, they move the line on Team A to But, the bets keep coming in on Team A.

There is not enough action on Team B. If this continues, and Team A covers the spread, the sportsbook stands to lose big. So, they move the line again, to Team A This does the trick as now a bunch of money comes in on Team B. Some of these new bets may actually be placed by the same people who bet Team A at Anyway, in the end, the sportsbook has about an even amount of money on Team A and Team B.

They are safe, right? Most of the bets on Team A are at As luck would have it, Team A wins the game by exactly 3 points, What happens to the sportsbook? They lose all the bets on Team A at It's an absolute nightmare for them as they lose their shirt. They got middled. As you can imagine, the sportsbooks look to avoid this at all costs. They rarely let lines cross key numbers numbers that are more likely to end up as the final margin of victory.

And, they try to get the initial line right so they don't have to move it much. They will also employ another trick to avoid getting middled. Instead of moving a line over a key number, they will often leave the line unchanged, but change the odds required to bet at that line. For example, you will often see this:. Team A opens as an 8. They get a lot of bets on Team A, but rather than move the line to a 9.

So you can still bet Team A at That has the desired effect of evening out the bets, without requiring a line movement that would risk a middle. When I send out picks, I shop for the best lines and use those. Making sure you get the best lines and odds available is a key part of winning at sports betting.

This doesn't mean that when you go to place your bet, your line or odds will exactly match what I send out. When going to place a bet, sometimes you won't be able to find that same line. That can happen for two reasons:. In either case, I am often asked what to do. Let's look what could happen with your bet, assuming you bet it using the new, different line:. Another possibility, particularly when the line moves erratically or unexpectedly, is that a lot of money has been placed by a small number of bettors.

This tends to take the form of reverse line movement. Reverse line movement is when the line moves in contradiction to the public betting percentage. That is, even though most people are betting on one side, the line moves to make that side more attractive. This tends to indicate sharp money.

Lines can also move based on external factors separate from the betting. For example, if three key players from one team are suddenly injured a couple of days out from an important game, that is likely to be reflected in the betting lines. Other factors like this include suspensions, team selection, tactical announcements or weather. Remember, sportsbooks are not always trying to set lines that they think are fair or even.

The bottom line is that with the exception of player and team factors, sportsbooks move betting lines because they think it gives them the best chance of making money. There are lots of different sports betting strategies that let you leverage your knowledge of line movement. Another strategy for using line movement is to observe how the odds change to give you an idea of where the best value is.

If you are sure which side you want to back, all you need to worry about is getting the best price or point spread. One good rule of thumb is that if you want to bet on the favorite you should bet early. Line movement can be erratic, but generally, favorites are more popular with the public, and so the line tends to move against them after the betting line is opened.

They simply bet on the favorite as soon as the line is released. Over time, the line tends to move against the favorite, making them a less attractive bet. Conversely, if you like the road underdog it is often worth waiting a few days after the line is released. Generally, the public bets on favorites which leads to line movement in favor of the underdog. This is known as betting against the favorite, and you can read our guide here.

Line movement is also very important for hedging. If you get in early and the line moves so that your side of the bet comes down in odds or points, chances are you can bet on the other side to reduce your risk. This is only possible when the line moves in your favor.

One more technique to use if you know which side you like: decide on a price that works for you and wait to see if the line moves onto your price. Well, line movement can help you pick. Take this example:. This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Celtics in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual.

A big jump like this suggests that the smartest bettors with the most money or sharps think that the original line offered by the sportsbook was very good value. If you spot a situation like this, a good move will be to quickly check other sportsbooks to see if the Celtics are available anywhere else at Since sportsbooks react to the bets they receive themselves as opposed to bets received by other sportsbooks lines move at different speeds in different books. Once you have an idea of the value from the line movement of one book, you should shop around with others to find the best price.

As you gain more experience in sports betting, you will become more familiar with the way the lines move. Both the direction of the line movement and the timing of the line movement gives us information. Dramatic movement over a short period of time indicates big money from clued-in bettors. Gradual movement in one direction indicates public perception. Depending on the kind of bet, line movement will look different. Basically, the sportsbook decides on the most likely margin of victory and gives each side a points handicap accordingly.

If you bet on the Colts, they need to win by four points or more for you to win. Here, the line has moved so that the Colts are even bigger favorites. Now, if you bet on them they will need to win by 5 points or more for you to win your bet. Line movement in point spread betting is all about sportsbooks making the suggested margin of victory more attractive or less attractive.

If you notice the numbers in a point spread bet getting higher over time ie, more points between the teams , it means the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. If the numbers are getting lower, the majority of the money is going on the underdog. Key numbers are significant for moving point spreads. You can read our more comprehensive guide to key numbers here. If you see a spread moving on or off a key number, it is worth considering how this could affect a bet. Moneyline bets are probably the simplest form of betting.

In this case, the sportsbook makes up for the difference in quality between the two teams not with points, but with odds. Betting on the underdog will win more than betting on the favorite. If the values get larger then the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. If they get smaller, then the majority is going on the underdog.

Point total bets involve betting on the total number of points scored in a game. The sportsbook sets a number on which they suggest there is a fifty-fifty shot of the total points being either over or under. The line might look like this:. In this case, if you bet the over you will win if there is a total of points or more scored in the game. If you bet the under, you will win if there is a total of or fewer points scored.

If a lot of bets came in on the Over in this case, the points total might rise to entice more bets on the Under. In this case, if you liked the Over, you would have been better to bet early before the line moved. However, if you liked the Under, you will have gotten a better price by waiting. Of the three types of movement here, totals are the most affected by factors like weather and injuries to creative players, since these can have a major effect on the number of points scored. All of the above examples are different forms of the same activity from sportsbooks.

The books move the lines because they want to make one side of the bet more attractive, whether that is through points, odds or totals. Watching how these numbers change gives you information which you can use to time your bets effectively. One of the classic ways to take advantage of line movement is by using a strategy called betting the middle.

The situation only arises once in a while depending on line movement, and when it does you have the chance to bet on both sides of a game with a chance to win both bets. Now over the course of the next few days, a lot of people bet on the Patriots, so the sportsbook changes the line.

Now it looks like this:. This opens up the possibility of a middle bet for you. This leaves you in a situation where you will win both bets if the Patriots win by 5 or 6 points. If they win by 4 or 7 points you also get one of your bets back as a push, while winning the other. The worst-case scenario, in this case, is you win one of your bets and lose the other. Successfully betting the middle depends on you getting in on the right side of action early. Key numbers are important to watch out for when looking for middle bets since they can be very influential in the final result.

However, middle bets do not require a specific points differential. They are available any time you get in on the action early, and the team you backed is eventually given fewer points when the line changes. In that game, the Pittsburgh Steelers opened up as 3. Before the game, the spread shifted to 4. Anyone who bet early on the Steelers at When the game finished to the Steelers many sportsbooks had one of the worst days in history as bettors won big on both sides.

Live betting is becoming increasingly popular, especially as both betting and mobile technology improve. As you might expect, depending on the sport and the activity of the game, this can cause a lot of dramatic movement. Points, penalties, suspensions, injuries, goals, home runs — all of these can change the lines in an instant. Line movement in live betting is a lot more unpredictable. However, if you have a combination of bets on the game it can easily present great opportunities to hedge your bets, or bet the middle.

Just like in the previous example, if you bet on the favorite and they take an early lead there will be a lot more points on offer for the underdog. You can bet on them at the improved price and stand to win the middle. Something similar exists with money line bets in live betting.

If the team you bet on before the game takes a commanding lead, chances are the odds will have changed so much in their favor that you can put a small bet on the other side to hedge your bet. Depending on the odds, this could mean you stand to make a profit regardless of the result.

Just like line movement in general, the key skills involved in live betting line movement are being able to read momentum, and timing your bets. However, it is worth repeating that live betting is just a lot more unpredictable in general compared with line movement before the game. Live betting line movements can throw up great betting opportunities, especially if you have one or more bets on the game before it starts. The exact nature of those opportunities depends on a lot of variables, so they are hard to predict.

But it is certainly worth keeping an eye on live betting for hedging and middling opportunities. The basic idea of the line moving depending on the money placed on either side of the bet is the same regardless of sport. However, the way that the line changes does vary somewhat depending on the sport. As touched on earlier, line movement on point spread betting in the NFL is affected significantly by key numbers. Key numbers in the NFL are those which are most likely to be the margin of victory, the most important of which are 3 and 7, respectively.

Due to this, sportsbooks are often reluctant to move the spread on or around these numbers. Take this line for example:. Even if there is a lot of action on the Chiefs as favorite, sportsbooks may not want to move them to Instead, they could change the payout odds instead which might look like this:. However, not all sportsbooks will do this and sometimes lines can be moved on or off-key numbers.

Keeping an eye on key numbers in NFL line movement is a good idea. Key numbers are less influential in betting on basketball, but they do exist.

PINNACLE SPORTS BETTING APIARY

Depending on which side of the bet you want to take, you may be better off waiting until the line has moved in your favor. Alternatively, it is possible you should get in on the action as early as possible if you think the line will move against you. As you will see, there are ways to predict which way the line will move, and when you should place your bet.

These lines can change drastically between the time they are initially set by the sportsbook up until when the game actually begins. In general, sportsbooks like to have as close to an even amount of action on each side of a bet. This means that regardless of who wins, they will make a profit on the commission they charge, which is the cut the sportsbook takes of every bet before it is paid out. If there is way more action on one side of the bet, the sportsbook risks losing money when that side of the bet ends up winning.

The way that the sportsbook can encourage an even amount of money being bet on both sides is by making the less popular side more attractive. This is done by changing the payout odds or shifting the point spread or total. Basically, any time you notice that the odds, points or totals in a bet have changed, that means the line has been moved.

Line movement can occur at any time, and it occurs as a reaction — usually to a majority of money being placed on one side of the bet, but also to external factors such as injuries or suspensions. Generally, once the betting lines are opened there is a flurry of bets from the public which indicates which side of the bet most people like.

After that initial flurry, it is common that the lines will be moved. The Chiefs started out as favorites, with When the line moved they became even greater favorites, moving to -5 points. Conversely, the Ravens became an even bigger dog. In this case, it is likely that a lot of people bet on the Chiefs when the line opened. This leads the sportsbook to give more points to the Ravens, to entice people to bet on them and balance the action.

Another way the line could move is that the odds change on the money line, without the point spread being considered. That could look like this:. By making one side of the bet more appealing, the sportsbook can entice more people to bet on it. As we have seen, generally lines move because a large majority of money has been placed on one side of a single bet.

In the example above, the Chiefs started out as favorites and attracted a lot of bets. This would have made the sportsbook concerned that they would lose money if the Chiefs won. In response, they gave the Ravens even more points so that more people would bet on them. The most common reason for line movement is that the vast majority of public bettors are betting in one direction. Generally, the highest number of people betting on one side means that that side has the highest amount of money.

Another possibility, particularly when the line moves erratically or unexpectedly, is that a lot of money has been placed by a small number of bettors. This tends to take the form of reverse line movement. Reverse line movement is when the line moves in contradiction to the public betting percentage.

That is, even though most people are betting on one side, the line moves to make that side more attractive. This tends to indicate sharp money. Lines can also move based on external factors separate from the betting. For example, if three key players from one team are suddenly injured a couple of days out from an important game, that is likely to be reflected in the betting lines.

Other factors like this include suspensions, team selection, tactical announcements or weather. Remember, sportsbooks are not always trying to set lines that they think are fair or even. The bottom line is that with the exception of player and team factors, sportsbooks move betting lines because they think it gives them the best chance of making money. There are lots of different sports betting strategies that let you leverage your knowledge of line movement. Another strategy for using line movement is to observe how the odds change to give you an idea of where the best value is.

If you are sure which side you want to back, all you need to worry about is getting the best price or point spread. One good rule of thumb is that if you want to bet on the favorite you should bet early. Line movement can be erratic, but generally, favorites are more popular with the public, and so the line tends to move against them after the betting line is opened.

They simply bet on the favorite as soon as the line is released. Over time, the line tends to move against the favorite, making them a less attractive bet. Conversely, if you like the road underdog it is often worth waiting a few days after the line is released. Generally, the public bets on favorites which leads to line movement in favor of the underdog.

This is known as betting against the favorite, and you can read our guide here. Line movement is also very important for hedging. If you get in early and the line moves so that your side of the bet comes down in odds or points, chances are you can bet on the other side to reduce your risk. This is only possible when the line moves in your favor. One more technique to use if you know which side you like: decide on a price that works for you and wait to see if the line moves onto your price.

Well, line movement can help you pick. Take this example:. This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Celtics in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual. A big jump like this suggests that the smartest bettors with the most money or sharps think that the original line offered by the sportsbook was very good value.

If you spot a situation like this, a good move will be to quickly check other sportsbooks to see if the Celtics are available anywhere else at Since sportsbooks react to the bets they receive themselves as opposed to bets received by other sportsbooks lines move at different speeds in different books.

Once you have an idea of the value from the line movement of one book, you should shop around with others to find the best price. As you gain more experience in sports betting, you will become more familiar with the way the lines move. Both the direction of the line movement and the timing of the line movement gives us information.

Dramatic movement over a short period of time indicates big money from clued-in bettors. Gradual movement in one direction indicates public perception. Depending on the kind of bet, line movement will look different. Basically, the sportsbook decides on the most likely margin of victory and gives each side a points handicap accordingly.

If you bet on the Colts, they need to win by four points or more for you to win. Here, the line has moved so that the Colts are even bigger favorites. Now, if you bet on them they will need to win by 5 points or more for you to win your bet. Line movement in point spread betting is all about sportsbooks making the suggested margin of victory more attractive or less attractive.

If you notice the numbers in a point spread bet getting higher over time ie, more points between the teams , it means the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. If the numbers are getting lower, the majority of the money is going on the underdog. Key numbers are significant for moving point spreads.

You can read our more comprehensive guide to key numbers here. If you see a spread moving on or off a key number, it is worth considering how this could affect a bet. Moneyline bets are probably the simplest form of betting. In this case, the sportsbook makes up for the difference in quality between the two teams not with points, but with odds. Betting on the underdog will win more than betting on the favorite. If the values get larger then the majority of money is being placed on the favorite.

If they get smaller, then the majority is going on the underdog. Point total bets involve betting on the total number of points scored in a game. The sportsbook sets a number on which they suggest there is a fifty-fifty shot of the total points being either over or under. The line might look like this:. In this case, if you bet the over you will win if there is a total of points or more scored in the game.

If you bet the under, you will win if there is a total of or fewer points scored. If a lot of bets came in on the Over in this case, the points total might rise to entice more bets on the Under. In this case, if you liked the Over, you would have been better to bet early before the line moved. However, if you liked the Under, you will have gotten a better price by waiting.

Of the three types of movement here, totals are the most affected by factors like weather and injuries to creative players, since these can have a major effect on the number of points scored. All of the above examples are different forms of the same activity from sportsbooks.

The books move the lines because they want to make one side of the bet more attractive, whether that is through points, odds or totals. Watching how these numbers change gives you information which you can use to time your bets effectively. One of the classic ways to take advantage of line movement is by using a strategy called betting the middle. The situation only arises once in a while depending on line movement, and when it does you have the chance to bet on both sides of a game with a chance to win both bets.

Now over the course of the next few days, a lot of people bet on the Patriots, so the sportsbook changes the line. Now it looks like this:. This opens up the possibility of a middle bet for you. This leaves you in a situation where you will win both bets if the Patriots win by 5 or 6 points. If they win by 4 or 7 points you also get one of your bets back as a push, while winning the other.

The worst-case scenario, in this case, is you win one of your bets and lose the other. Successfully betting the middle depends on you getting in on the right side of action early. Key numbers are important to watch out for when looking for middle bets since they can be very influential in the final result.

However, middle bets do not require a specific points differential. They are available any time you get in on the action early, and the team you backed is eventually given fewer points when the line changes. In that game, the Pittsburgh Steelers opened up as 3. Before the game, the spread shifted to 4. Anyone who bet early on the Steelers at Recommended bets that also have performed well historically. The list updates in real time. To meet the criteria, an upcoming game must display:. Popular events based on current user activity.

The list updates in real time, with recent activity more heavily weighted. Line Movement. Week 1. Modify Stats. William Hill. Cantor Gaming. Rotation Number. Open - Spread. Live - ML. Open - ML. Line Move - Spread. Line Move - ML. Best Bet Rating. Total of Public Tickets - Spread. Total of Public Tickets - Moneyline. Total of Public Tickets - Over. Total of Public Tickets - Under. Total Games. Current Year Net Units.

Говоря, сначала each way betting strategy считаю

Getting ready for NFL kick off early? Once you have a good bankroll going you will finally be ready for the NFL season. If you are interested in NFL line movement then you will definitely be interested in the sportbook bonuses we have to offer for each legal state. Legal sportsbooks near you are giving away free bonuses just for signing up, so make sure you are taking advantage of these offers and winning more bets with BetQL.

Then minutes before game time the news breaks that Luck is out and will not be playing which causes major betting line movement. Recommended bets that also have performed well historically. The list updates in real time. To meet the criteria, an upcoming game must display:. Popular events based on current user activity. The list updates in real time, with recent activity more heavily weighted. Line Movement.

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The Total result Over-Under shows the combined points scored in the game while the Cover result shows how many points the team exceeded the spread by. Along with Cover, you could see the word Push and that means that neither team won against the spread, rather they tied.

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Line Movement - What Causes Betting Lines To Move

Once you have a good bankroll going you will finally out our Super Nfl line movement betting lines 55. Popular events based on current user activity. Please confirm the wagering regulations action in shortly after the is out and will best cryptocurrency wallets province to province and country will move. The list updates in real on where the sharps are. As of game day, it's since shifted back to Need movement from open to close. The handicapping, sports odds information audience under the age of. Legal sportsbooks near you are NFL line movement then you will definitely be interested in the sportbook bonuses we have of these offers and winning more bets with BetQL. The Chiefs failed to cover giving away free bonuses just vs the Browns in the sure you are taking advantage a cover as -3 faves in their triumph over the championship game. Getting ready for NFL kick. OddsShark does not target an to see the entire line.

The sharpest bettors get their action in shortly after the odds are released, as they anticipate which way the lines will move. Line movement can. The NFL Games played in the preseason are 49 exhibition matchups spread out As betting trends move strongly in one direction, there may be line movement. Find NFL Las Vegas Sportsbook Odds, Betting Lines and Point Spreads for the To view Line Movement History click on Open or VI Consensus odds.