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Fxiuix on February 5, at pm. Hflqmm on February 6, at pm. You can analyze a pool of players, and see what their ranges look like in certain situations. If, for example, you realize that people overreact to cards that complete draws, then you can use that knowledge to your advantage.
If enough people have a weakness, you now have a read on the current meta a so-called population read that allows you to exploit a vast pool of players. The only way you can really figure this out at scale is through data analysis.
The other way is manual labor: analyzing hand histories, one-by-one, for hours on end. A lot of money has been made by exploiting the meta. Back in the early s, players were very timid. Everyone and their mother folded to three-bets, and everyone played face-up against continuation bets. The people who made money were the ones who found this hole in the meta, and exploited the hell out of it. Three-betting became all the rage, continuation betting flops became all the rage.
Whenever these good players got called, they stopped firing. If someone called, it meant they were on a draw or had a pair. Another hole in the meta was that no one ever folded top pair. If one of these good players could beat top pair, they would pound it as hard as they could. The world of science is very quiet compared to the highly volatile world of poker. Professors never come home from work with less money than they left with. Of course, the rigorous logic that comes with mathematical thinking is extremely important in poker, but logic is not reserved for mathematicians.
When skill is not the determining factor between winning and losing, emotional control, risk tolerance and whatever combination of other skills play a much more important role for the winrate of top poker players. Several high stakes pros have told me that their edge in the very toughest games actually comes from tilt control.
These players stay in games that, on the surface, look incredibly bad, because one great player is prone to losing control and wasting a lot of money. If a loose cannon starts tilting, a bad game quickly becomes a good game. Mathematical analysis is very useful for figuring out how to play, but it does not equip you with the all-encompassing skills you need to become a full-time professional.
The theoretical knowledge makes for great journalism, entertainment, and post-game analysis. You are left to your own devices, and under the pressure of time and potential loss of money, theoretical knowledge takes a hike. Logic goes out the window when emotions take over. We become especially bad at probability calculus on ten fingers. The game is simply too complex for any human being. Most players have gotten very good using a simple mix of mathematical concepts and an understanding of how the game is played.
Anything beyond that is mostly for poker researchers who develop tools that players use to improve. Nothing wrong with that. The holy grail of poker is game theory optimal play. The promise of game theory optimal poker is one of the greatest sales pitches ever to have been written. Game theory optimal strategy makes sure you never lose, and any adjustment that your opponent makes that is not game theory optimal play makes sure that he loses.
And people hate losing. Unfortunately, the game is too complex for us to memorize the exact strategy for all of it. There are 1, combinations of starting hands. There are , possible flops. Good luck remembering even one percent of what to do on those boards with one of your 1, combinations. We use rules of thumb, also known as heuristics.
Heuristics are a set of rules that help us increase the probability of solving a problem. Great poker players are really good at using heuristics. This is where off-table analysis becomes extremely useful. Analysis allows you to understand the game at a much deeper level, and lets you develop some very advanced heuristics.
Here, post-game analysis has been condensed into a heuristic that allows you to make quick decisions. If a lot of players end up doing this, and it becomes part of the meta, you have a meta-read that you can exploit.
Notice, though, that the simplified analysis I just gave is not rooted in equations and complex mathematics. Instead, it comes from the fundamentals of the game, which only requires basic high school math.
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