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Efficient markets sports betting sathya ramesh

Had it occurred at the first date, the French state would have saved the equivalent of 2. Our analysis shows that the institutions prevailing at the time gave large bondholders the power to veto any conversion. However, existing DSGE studies of risk premia rarely incorporate stochastic volatility, despite its popularity in empirical asset pricing and growing importance in empirical macroeconomics.

We first propose a Bayesian procedure for estimating a stochastic volatility process in levels and then integrate the procedure into a larger MCMC algorithm that incorporates an affine model solution based on log-normality. The larger MCMC algorithm makes likelihood-based estimation of risk premia in DSGE models with stochastic volatility computationally feasible and efficient.

We use the algorithm to estimate the US equity risk premium in a DSGE model with recursive preferences that includes time-preference, technology, investment, and volatility shocks. Time-preference and technology shocks are primarily responsible for the sizable equity risk premium in the estimated DSGE model. The estimated historical stochastic volatility and equity risk premium series display pronounced countercyclical fluctuations. We further present evidence that the type of IT directors on the board matters.

Finally, we exploit industry level data breaches as an exogenous shock for the appointment of IT directors on board, and argue that our results are not driven by endogeneity. The suits appear to be an alternative method of governance in that defendant firms with highly central CEOs are more likely to replace the CEO and increase the independence of the board in the years following the SCA.

We find that the market values the suits, regardless of the immediate outcome, as cumulative abnormal returns around the announcement of the suit are highest for firms with highly connected CEOs. Using all public firm filings simultaneously, we implement a PageRank-type algorithm to produce a dynamic measure of firm competitiveness, denoted C-Rank. The findings are largely consistent with investor underreaction to firm business opportunities identified by other strong firms.

Nevertheless, stock return covariation with the C-Rank portfolio spread suggests that part of the return predictability can be interpreted as compensation for systematic cross-sector disruption risk. This results in smaller firms, which are typically not listed on the first section of the exchange, following the compliance behaviour of larger firms listed on the first section in the same industry sector. Importantly, this pressure to follow in the steps of leading firms is to the detriment of board effectiveness and shareholder value.

These findings highlight the risks in adopting corporate governance policies without due attention to cultural nuances. SSRN How can non-profit organizations improve their governance to increase their social impact? Within the program, a set of health centers were randomly assigned to a governance treatment while others were not. We find that improved governance leads to i higher operating efficiency and ii improvements in social performance measured by a reduction in the occurrence of stillbirths and neonatal deaths.

We then present comprehensive empirical evidence on public U. Finally, we discuss directions for future research, including a better understanding of debt structure choices by non-U. The study collected data from seventeen firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange from to A quantitative research technique is used to collect data to test two hypotheses.

The study concludes that firms should minimise the use of debt capital and rather concentrate on equity capital to finance their operations. The predictive power of non-star CEO trades is mostly attributable to opportunistic trades, not routine trades. We also find evidence suggesting that the abnormal returns associated with non-star CEO insider trades are due to the lower visibility and consequently less scrutiny of non-star CEOs compared with star CEOs.

Several recent regulatory guidelines are aimed specifically at simplifying the language of financial reporting in order to ensure that the reports can be read and understood by the public at large. However, quantitative scientific evidence of the evolving linguistic complexity of finance is scarce.

In this work we introduce various methods for measuring the linguistic complexity of financial texts. Some of these methods rely on advanced Natural Language Processing NLP techniques unavailable when earlier studies were conducted. We have found that K reports have grown substantially longer, more complex and less readable. In terms of education necessary to comprehend them, this increased complexity translates to additional 2. A similar pattern of using highly complex language is also evident in financial news.

The latter finding suggests that financial reality is becoming increasingly difficult to describe and explain. In contrast, the language of other corpora, including general news and scientific publications, has become more readable over the same period of time. Much attention and hyperbole has been attributed to startup FinTech developers and the potential of applications for consumers of financial products and financial markets.

However, institutional incumbents command large market franchises and possess deep financial and technical resources. Incumbents also have most to gain from leveraging FinTech developments. As the financial services industry is saturated with information systems, innovative technologies which have the potential to re-configure industry markets and institutional logics, inevitably confront regulatory boundaries. Given intense competition for technological advantage, strategic and corporate activity closely follows FinTech development.

It provides a stringent scientific definition of the FinTech phenomenon, addressing a lacuna within the extant research. The article discusses insights and suggestions for further research directions relevant to academics, industry participants, and policymakers. Framework for Debating Finance with Publications and Films Henriques-de-Brito, Marcelo SSRN The initial goal of this work is to present a new pictorial framework with the body of knowledge for financial analysis and portfolio management, including investment instruments as well as the required fundamental and applied knowledge for financial decision making.

An additional objective is to list scenes of films and publications in English sorted according to the suggested framework so as to be used with groups and engage them to discuss financial cases and issues in English, since this language is used in the financial industry worldwide. Such recommendations of films and publications target real, practical situations and circumstances accessible by audiences with various backgrounds.

A further purpose of this work is to present a procedure to employ surveys during presentations with debates. Such procedure includes the suggestion of collecting answers from attendees using QR code, which enables on-line feedback of the audience using their smartphones. Using a unique sample of loan applications by small and micro enterprises, we find that, ceteris paribus, female entrepreneurs are more prudent loan applicants, who are less likely to apply or reapply for credit, and less likely to default after loan origination.

However, more proactive behavior of male applicants pays off, yielding higher average firm performance after loan origination. We show that most of the performance gap between small male- and female-owned firms is attributed to the identified gender differences in credit demand. This CEPR Policy Insight throws light on the root causes of speculative fevers in asset markets and related financial booms and busts.

It shows empirical evidence indicating that Shiller may have overlooked the role that lax monetary policy played in triggering financial bubbles in the s by offering investors a perverse promise of ever-increasing asset prices. SSRN In the wake of the financial crisis and continued volatility in international capital markets, there is growing interest in mechanisms that can protect people against retirement account volatility.

We evaluate the case of German Riester plans adopted in , an individual retirement account produce that includes embedded mandatory money-back guarantees. These guarantees influenced participant consumption, saving, and investment behavior in the higher interest rate environment of that era, and they have even larger impacts in a low-return world such as the present. Our results are of general interest for other countries implementing default investment options in individual retirement accounts, such as the U.

Pedraz, Carlos SSRN Over the past decade, the volume of leveraged loans has grown to reach its highest level since the end of the crisis. The terms and conditions of leveraged loans have become less restrictive and a large proportion is distributed among institutional investors worldwide, in the form of collateralised loan obligations CLOs. This originate-to-distribute model poses potential risks for the financial system.

In the event of a cyclical downturn the losses in this market could be significant, in particular, owing to the relaxation of investor protections. In addition, given the importance of these loans as a source of corporate financing, a rise in defaults would have adverse effects on the real economy. At the same time, we observe a credibility crisis challenging the reliability and transparency of academic research.

This creates demand for methods that objectively evaluate and consolidate previous empirical evidence. Meta-analysis is a statistical method to aggregate a set of prior studies, to discover and explain consistencies as well as inconsistencies within the reported results, and to detect and filter out common distorting effects due to publication bias or model misspecification.

However, while meta-analysis is a standard tool for research synthesis and evidence-based decisions in many related research disciplines, like management, marketing, or economics, it has been rarely applied in finance. The goal of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview and discussion of the opportunities of meta-analytical research in financial economics, its recent applications, as well as related challenges and limitations.

Thereby, we aim at increasing the awareness and acceptance of meta-analysis in finance and stimulating its future application in the field. Modeling the underlying asset price as a Markov-modulated diffusion process, we present a utility maximization approach to determine the optimal futures trading strategy. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the investor's optimal futures positions and portfolio value across market regimes.

Muslim jurists specially from sub-continent have produced a remarkable juristic exegesis in the field of Quranic Studies. This research covers briefly an overview of these works done by the Mufassirin of sub-continent in the field of Juristic exegesis. Whereas previous research has examined this prediction in the equity market, we focus on trading in the options market.

Controlling for stock market cross-sectional volatility, stock idiosyncratic risk, and option market volatility, we find that option trading turnover is positively related to past stock market return. In addition, call option turnover and call to put ratio are also positively associated with the past stock market return.

These findings are consistent with the overconfidence theory. We also find that overconfident investors trade more in the options market than in the equity market. We rule out explanations other than investor overconfidence, such as momentum trading and varying risk preferences, for our findings. Trindade,Sergio Floquet,Lourival M. Filho arXiv We developed a strategic of optimal portfolio based on information theory and Tsallis statistics.

Shocks Implication on the Fundamental Drivers of Pan-European Equity Reits: Volatility Connectedness Nassili, Naoufal,Simon, Arnaud,Malle, Richard SSRN The European economic integration and the financialization of the real estate certainly brought enormous contributions for the investment in this class of asset, on the other hand, the faster propagation of the shocks and the sudden corrections of markets become serious subjects.

The aim of this paper is to shed light on these invisible risks, our contribution is to unravel the mystery around the existing volatility spillovers among equity REITs. Exchange-listed equity REITs have complex patterns of volatility since they are the nexus of two markets: the real estate and the equity market.

From a sample of 42 Pan-European REITs throughout a period of 15 years spanning from to the end of and using an intra-day sampling we document several insights and findings. In the static connectedness, we did find similar results as the literature analyzing equity connectedness at stress period i. Moreover, REITs co-movements is mainly explained by the geographical aspects and commercial real estate sub-sectors.

Dynamically, the source of shocks e. SSRN This paper examines the influence of objectively irrelevant information on prediction accuracy in horse-racing betting exchange markets. Launch Research Feed. Share This Paper. Methods Citations. Supplemental Video. Asset Pricing and Sports Betting. Explore Further Discover more papers related to the topics discussed in this paper.

Paper Mentions. Blog Post. In defence of some economics. Stumbling and Mumbling. Coping with unreplicability. Research links: model failures. Abnormal Returns. Citation Type. Has PDF. Publication Type. More Filters. View 2 excerpts, cites background.

Research Feed. View 1 excerpt, cites methods. Valuation and Hedging of Sports Futures Wagers. View 1 excerpt, cites background.

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In this paper we argue that such institutions may be so strong that bondholders can exploit them for their own benefit, not the state's. To prove this point, we focus on the non- conversion of French bonds during the second quarter of the 19th century. At the time, France was able to convert its bonds. In other words, the state could ask bondholders to choose between redemption at par or a new bond with a lower coupon.

Even though improvements in French credit meant the state could benefit from converting its debt as early as May , no conversion took place before March Had it occurred at the first date, the French state would have saved the equivalent of 2.

Our analysis shows that the institutions prevailing at the time gave large bondholders the power to veto any conversion. However, existing DSGE studies of risk premia rarely incorporate stochastic volatility, despite its popularity in empirical asset pricing and growing importance in empirical macroeconomics. We first propose a Bayesian procedure for estimating a stochastic volatility process in levels and then integrate the procedure into a larger MCMC algorithm that incorporates an affine model solution based on log-normality.

The larger MCMC algorithm makes likelihood-based estimation of risk premia in DSGE models with stochastic volatility computationally feasible and efficient. We use the algorithm to estimate the US equity risk premium in a DSGE model with recursive preferences that includes time-preference, technology, investment, and volatility shocks.

Time-preference and technology shocks are primarily responsible for the sizable equity risk premium in the estimated DSGE model. The estimated historical stochastic volatility and equity risk premium series display pronounced countercyclical fluctuations. We further present evidence that the type of IT directors on the board matters. Finally, we exploit industry level data breaches as an exogenous shock for the appointment of IT directors on board, and argue that our results are not driven by endogeneity.

The suits appear to be an alternative method of governance in that defendant firms with highly central CEOs are more likely to replace the CEO and increase the independence of the board in the years following the SCA. We find that the market values the suits, regardless of the immediate outcome, as cumulative abnormal returns around the announcement of the suit are highest for firms with highly connected CEOs. Using all public firm filings simultaneously, we implement a PageRank-type algorithm to produce a dynamic measure of firm competitiveness, denoted C-Rank.

The findings are largely consistent with investor underreaction to firm business opportunities identified by other strong firms. Nevertheless, stock return covariation with the C-Rank portfolio spread suggests that part of the return predictability can be interpreted as compensation for systematic cross-sector disruption risk. This results in smaller firms, which are typically not listed on the first section of the exchange, following the compliance behaviour of larger firms listed on the first section in the same industry sector.

Importantly, this pressure to follow in the steps of leading firms is to the detriment of board effectiveness and shareholder value. These findings highlight the risks in adopting corporate governance policies without due attention to cultural nuances. SSRN How can non-profit organizations improve their governance to increase their social impact?

Within the program, a set of health centers were randomly assigned to a governance treatment while others were not. We find that improved governance leads to i higher operating efficiency and ii improvements in social performance measured by a reduction in the occurrence of stillbirths and neonatal deaths.

We then present comprehensive empirical evidence on public U. Finally, we discuss directions for future research, including a better understanding of debt structure choices by non-U. The study collected data from seventeen firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange from to A quantitative research technique is used to collect data to test two hypotheses. The study concludes that firms should minimise the use of debt capital and rather concentrate on equity capital to finance their operations.

The predictive power of non-star CEO trades is mostly attributable to opportunistic trades, not routine trades. We also find evidence suggesting that the abnormal returns associated with non-star CEO insider trades are due to the lower visibility and consequently less scrutiny of non-star CEOs compared with star CEOs.

Several recent regulatory guidelines are aimed specifically at simplifying the language of financial reporting in order to ensure that the reports can be read and understood by the public at large. However, quantitative scientific evidence of the evolving linguistic complexity of finance is scarce. In this work we introduce various methods for measuring the linguistic complexity of financial texts. Some of these methods rely on advanced Natural Language Processing NLP techniques unavailable when earlier studies were conducted.

We have found that K reports have grown substantially longer, more complex and less readable. In terms of education necessary to comprehend them, this increased complexity translates to additional 2. A similar pattern of using highly complex language is also evident in financial news.

The latter finding suggests that financial reality is becoming increasingly difficult to describe and explain. In contrast, the language of other corpora, including general news and scientific publications, has become more readable over the same period of time. Much attention and hyperbole has been attributed to startup FinTech developers and the potential of applications for consumers of financial products and financial markets.

However, institutional incumbents command large market franchises and possess deep financial and technical resources. Incumbents also have most to gain from leveraging FinTech developments. As the financial services industry is saturated with information systems, innovative technologies which have the potential to re-configure industry markets and institutional logics, inevitably confront regulatory boundaries.

Given intense competition for technological advantage, strategic and corporate activity closely follows FinTech development. It provides a stringent scientific definition of the FinTech phenomenon, addressing a lacuna within the extant research. The article discusses insights and suggestions for further research directions relevant to academics, industry participants, and policymakers. Framework for Debating Finance with Publications and Films Henriques-de-Brito, Marcelo SSRN The initial goal of this work is to present a new pictorial framework with the body of knowledge for financial analysis and portfolio management, including investment instruments as well as the required fundamental and applied knowledge for financial decision making.

An additional objective is to list scenes of films and publications in English sorted according to the suggested framework so as to be used with groups and engage them to discuss financial cases and issues in English, since this language is used in the financial industry worldwide. Such recommendations of films and publications target real, practical situations and circumstances accessible by audiences with various backgrounds.

A further purpose of this work is to present a procedure to employ surveys during presentations with debates. Such procedure includes the suggestion of collecting answers from attendees using QR code, which enables on-line feedback of the audience using their smartphones.

Using a unique sample of loan applications by small and micro enterprises, we find that, ceteris paribus, female entrepreneurs are more prudent loan applicants, who are less likely to apply or reapply for credit, and less likely to default after loan origination.

However, more proactive behavior of male applicants pays off, yielding higher average firm performance after loan origination. We show that most of the performance gap between small male- and female-owned firms is attributed to the identified gender differences in credit demand. This CEPR Policy Insight throws light on the root causes of speculative fevers in asset markets and related financial booms and busts.

It shows empirical evidence indicating that Shiller may have overlooked the role that lax monetary policy played in triggering financial bubbles in the s by offering investors a perverse promise of ever-increasing asset prices. SSRN In the wake of the financial crisis and continued volatility in international capital markets, there is growing interest in mechanisms that can protect people against retirement account volatility.

We evaluate the case of German Riester plans adopted in , an individual retirement account produce that includes embedded mandatory money-back guarantees. These guarantees influenced participant consumption, saving, and investment behavior in the higher interest rate environment of that era, and they have even larger impacts in a low-return world such as the present. Our results are of general interest for other countries implementing default investment options in individual retirement accounts, such as the U.

Pedraz, Carlos SSRN Over the past decade, the volume of leveraged loans has grown to reach its highest level since the end of the crisis. The terms and conditions of leveraged loans have become less restrictive and a large proportion is distributed among institutional investors worldwide, in the form of collateralised loan obligations CLOs.

This originate-to-distribute model poses potential risks for the financial system. In the event of a cyclical downturn the losses in this market could be significant, in particular, owing to the relaxation of investor protections. In addition, given the importance of these loans as a source of corporate financing, a rise in defaults would have adverse effects on the real economy.

At the same time, we observe a credibility crisis challenging the reliability and transparency of academic research. This creates demand for methods that objectively evaluate and consolidate previous empirical evidence. Meta-analysis is a statistical method to aggregate a set of prior studies, to discover and explain consistencies as well as inconsistencies within the reported results, and to detect and filter out common distorting effects due to publication bias or model misspecification.

However, while meta-analysis is a standard tool for research synthesis and evidence-based decisions in many related research disciplines, like management, marketing, or economics, it has been rarely applied in finance. The goal of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview and discussion of the opportunities of meta-analytical research in financial economics, its recent applications, as well as related challenges and limitations.

Thereby, we aim at increasing the awareness and acceptance of meta-analysis in finance and stimulating its future application in the field. Modeling the underlying asset price as a Markov-modulated diffusion process, we present a utility maximization approach to determine the optimal futures trading strategy. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the investor's optimal futures positions and portfolio value across market regimes.

Muslim jurists specially from sub-continent have produced a remarkable juristic exegesis in the field of Quranic Studies. This research covers briefly an overview of these works done by the Mufassirin of sub-continent in the field of Juristic exegesis. Whereas previous research has examined this prediction in the equity market, we focus on trading in the options market.

Controlling for stock market cross-sectional volatility, stock idiosyncratic risk, and option market volatility, we find that option trading turnover is positively related to past stock market return. In addition, call option turnover and call to put ratio are also positively associated with the past stock market return. These findings are consistent with the overconfidence theory.

We also find that overconfident investors trade more in the options market than in the equity market. We rule out explanations other than investor overconfidence, such as momentum trading and varying risk preferences, for our findings. Trindade,Sergio Floquet,Lourival M. Filho arXiv We developed a strategic of optimal portfolio based on information theory and Tsallis statistics.

Shocks Implication on the Fundamental Drivers of Pan-European Equity Reits: Volatility Connectedness Nassili, Naoufal,Simon, Arnaud,Malle, Richard SSRN The European economic integration and the financialization of the real estate certainly brought enormous contributions for the investment in this class of asset, on the other hand, the faster propagation of the shocks and the sudden corrections of markets become serious subjects.

The aim of this paper is to shed light on these invisible risks, our contribution is to unravel the mystery around the existing volatility spillovers among equity REITs. Exchange-listed equity REITs have complex patterns of volatility since they are the nexus of two markets: the real estate and the equity market. Save to Library. Create Alert. Launch Research Feed. Share This Paper. Methods Citations. Supplemental Video.

Asset Pricing and Sports Betting. Explore Further Discover more papers related to the topics discussed in this paper. Paper Mentions. Blog Post. In defence of some economics. Stumbling and Mumbling. Coping with unreplicability. Research links: model failures. Abnormal Returns. Citation Type. Has PDF. Publication Type. More Filters. View 2 excerpts, cites background. Research Feed. View 1 excerpt, cites methods.

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